As global markets enter a phase defined by slower growth, heightened geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological change, investors are advised to reconsider traditional portfolio strategies. Fiscal activism, shifting demographics, and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping long-term investment trends, presenting both challenges and new opportunities.
In this context, J.P. Morgan Asset Management has published its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), providing a 10–15-year outlook that remains positive despite recent market volatility. The report forecasts an annual return of 6.4% for the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, with an enhanced 6.9% return for portfolios that include diversified alternatives such as private equity, real assets, and infrastructure.
Celebrating the 30th anniversary of its flagship report, J.P. Morgan projects a 6.4% annual return for the traditional USD 60/40 portfolio over the next decade or more. However, diversification with a 30% allocation to alternatives could increase returns to 6.9% and improve risk-adjusted returns by 25%. While concerns about slowing growth due to labor market limitations exist, AI adoption is seen as a major catalyst for profitability in the near term and productivity growth over the long term.
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