Because of the US tariffs, Coface, a pioneer in trade credit insurance, debt collection, and business information services, has updated its assessment of global GDP growth to about 2% in 2025. Coface’s VIP conference in Dubai came to a triumphant end on Tuesday. The occasion brought together prominent figures from the insurance, technology, and financial industries for a thought-provoking conversation about the potential and problems influencing international commerce and risk management in 2025.
Gulf Today was informed by Jean-Christophe Caffet, Chief Economist of Coface Group, that the primary goal of holding the conference is to inform the global community about the effects of US tariffs on the global economy.
To prevent the worst recession, he challenged nations worldwide to embrace the policy of talks and forgo retribution. The economic golden age we have been living through for the past 30 years, marked by strong economic growth, low inflation, and weak volatility, is over,” he said, referring to the “great moderation.
The ongoing trade war will result in significant supply chain disruptions, slower GDP, and higher inflation, creating a more volatile and stagflationary environment. The base scenario is still higher for longer interest rates. Except, of course, if the banking industry experiences a disruption. Pressures on operational margins and rising interest costs are the main causes of increased corporate insolvencies. They ought to keep growing during the upcoming quarters, if not years.
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